Daily Market Overview - March 13, 2026

This Friday, March 13, 2026, brings an exceptionally busy schedule of macroeconomic publications that could significantly impact financial markets. To start, at 8:00 (Warsaw time), we will receive data on the UK GDP m/m, with a forecast of a 0.2% increase compared to the previous result of 0.1%. Then, at 13:30 (Warsaw time), we will witness a wave of data from North America. In the United States, key indicators will be the Core PCE Price Index m/m and the preliminary GDP reading for the first quarter, both forecasted to be 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. Simultaneously, Canada will publish its unemployment rate, with an expected rise to 6.6%, and a change in employment, where an increase of 10.3 thousand is anticipated, which may indicate shifts in the labor market. At 15:00 (Warsaw time), we will also learn about JOLTS Job Openings, with a forecast of 6.76 million, which could provide additional insights into the condition of the U.S. labor market.

Data released over the week indicated a stabilization of inflation in the USA, confirmed by CPI readings that met forecasts. Weekly jobless claims were better than expected, which may suggest some improvement in the labor market. However, market sentiment remains in a state of extreme fear, reflected by a drop in the Fear & Greed index to a level of 21/100. In such conditions, any uncertainty can trigger a sharp market reaction, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting, where high expectations regarding interest rates are maintained.

Today's data could significantly impact volatility in the afternoon, particularly at 13:30 (Warsaw time), when key reports from the USA and Canada will be released simultaneously. Investors should pay special attention to the Core PCE readings, which are a crucial indicator for the Fed's monetary policy. If the results differ from forecasts, we can expect significant movements in the forex market, especially in pairs involving the US and Canadian dollars. Exercising caution and closely monitoring these publications will be essential for effective risk management.

Market sentiment remains in a phase of extreme fear, reflecting uncertainty and a cautious attitude among investors. The Fear & Greed Index at 21/100 indicates prevailing pessimism, which could lead to sharp reactions to any unexpected information. In this context, today's macroeconomic data from the USA and Canada will be crucial, and their impact on the markets may be amplified by concerns surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting. Investors should be prepared for increased volatility, particularly in the currency and equity sectors.