Geopolitical tensions and their impact on the markets: Iran in the spotlight

The Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil transport, has once again come into the spotlight due to escalating tensions between Iran and other countries. In recent days, Iran announced the closure of the strait as a tool to pressure its opponents, which has caused many LNG shipments to be unable to leave the Persian Gulf. In response to these actions, Saudi Arabia, through Saudi Aramco, is considering purchasing Ukrainian drones to protect its oil fields. These events are putting pressure on oil prices and could impact global energy markets, especially if physical disruptions in supply occur. Additionally, the Trump administration plans to suspend the Jones Act, which aims to lower domestic oil prices in the USA.

The upcoming FOMC meeting and recent expectations regarding interest rates are attracting the attention of investors. Currently, the market almost unanimously expects that the Fed will keep interest rates at 3.50-3.75%. It is worth noting that traders have stopped fully considering the possibility of one rate cut in 2026, which suggests increasing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy. This situation may be related to concerns about geopolitical tensions and their impact on the global economy. Extreme fear in the market, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, indicates growing uncertainty and potential market fluctuations.

The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the upcoming Fed decisions will be crucial for the markets in the coming days. Investors should pay attention to the developments in Iran and any changes in expectations regarding US monetary policy that may affect global investment sentiment.