Geopolitical tensions and inflation data shape the markets.

Market expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate decision remain stable, with a 99.4% probability of maintaining the current range of 3.50-3.75%. This indicates that investors do not expect changes at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which will take place on March 18, 2026. The current stability of interest rates is crucial in the context of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic data that may influence future Fed decisions.

Geopolitical Situation

The geopolitical situation is becoming increasingly tense. Donald Trump announced his intention to introduce emergency legislation due to rising tensions in the oil market and the situation in the Sable region. Additionally, the FBI warned of possible drone attacks from Iran in retaliation for American military actions. These events raise uncertainty in the markets, which may affect the volatility of commodity and currency prices.

The latest data on inflation in the USA shows that the Supercore CPI increased by 0.35% month over month and 2.75% year over year. This is a higher rate of change than in the previous month, which may indicate persistent inflationary pressure. In the context of the Fed's monetary policy, this data is significant as it may influence future decisions regarding interest rates and strategies to combat inflation.

EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 3.824 million barrels, which exceeded analysts' forecasts. Additionally, members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to ease pressure on the market. These actions aim to stabilize commodity prices in the face of geopolitical tensions and may impact the reduction of oil prices in global markets.

Tomorrow is worth observing for further geopolitical news that may impact commodity and currency markets. Any signals from the Fed regarding future actions in monetary policy will also be crucial, especially in the context of the latest inflation data.